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1. 3 Probabilistic Design Methods
Fixed cost does not depend on production rate and/or size - Variable cost changes with production rate and/or size.
Technology Readiness Level Ranges 1-9 - where 1 means that the basic principle have been observed and reported and 9 means the technology has had successful missions A high tech means the technology is pretty developed and should be (or is) ready for
(1) Sophisticated Analysis Code + Monte Carlo (2) Metamodel/Response Surface + Monte Carlo (3) Sophisticated Analysis Code + Fast Probability Integration
Allows designer to assess feasibility of design


2. Why do we use a sample?
A sample is a subset of a population. We use samples because we very rarely have the resources to test/examine an entire population
Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the cost of an average 'basket of goods' a typical consumer would purchase.
F(x)=1/(s(2p)^(.5) )exp?(-(x-
Technology space limits


3. What does the CLT state - be specific!
Identified techs are now applied to the vehicle concepts and evaluated. Evaluation provided data/info to the decision - maker. Method: RSE: Response Surface Eqn.
Regions 1 to 3.
X+Y and X-Y are normally distributed. - (X
As you add n number of identical & independent distributions (IIDs) together - as n --> inf - the resulting distribution will be normal - regardless of the shape of the IIDs


4. What is TRL? Range? What does a high TRL mean?
Technology Readiness Level Ranges 1-9 - where 1 means that the basic principle have been observed and reported and 9 means the technology has had successful missions A high tech means the technology is pretty developed and should be (or is) ready for
As you add n number of identical & independent distributions (IIDs) together - as n --> inf - the resulting distribution will be normal - regardless of the shape of the IIDs
Provide for rapid trade- off capability between the three elements and search for feasible solutions - Allow graphical visualization of the combined space - Address mission requirements ambiguity and technology uncertainty.
Inflation is the decrease in the buying power/value of money. It is caused by the when amount of available money changes wrt amount of product/services available


5. Weaknesses of TOPSis...
(1) End result not intuitive (2) Heavily reliant on weights - which are subjective
Determine the design space - baseline Method: Morphological Matrix
Chosen alternative should be closest to positive ideal soln - and farthest from neg ideal soln
(1) Sophisticated Analysis Code + Monte Carlo (2) Metamodel/Response Surface + Monte Carlo (3) Sophisticated Analysis Code + Fast Probability Integration


6. What is the difference between price and cost?
OEC = W1X/Xbsl + W2Nbsl/N
(1) Problem def - (2) Design space conception (3) Model and Simulation (4) Investigate Design Space (5) Feasible? (6) Identify Technologies (7) Evaluate Technologies (8) Select Technology
Does not have a natural zero - is a cardinal scale
Cost: investment required to produce and item - Price: amount required to purchase said item - Price = cost + profit/fee


7. TIES Step 4: Investigate Design Space
Trying to determine the metric values for any combination of design variables/ what the metrics are as a function of design variables Method: RSE: Response Surface Eqn.
Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution
(1) End result not intuitive (2) Heavily reliant on weights - which are subjective
RDTE - Investment/Acquisition - Operations and Support - Disposal


8. With 15 technologies - what is the number of possible combinations?
RDTE - Investment/Acquisition - Operations and Support - Disposal
To analytically answer 'How much design margin is really necessary?'
#=2^n = 2^15
Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the cost of an average 'basket of goods' a typical consumer would purchase.


9. Other than infusing technologies - how can you create design space?
(1) Expanding ranges on engineering metrics (2) Relaxing customer requirements (3) Select a different concept space
It gives the probability that a value will be met or exceeded.
Cost required to perform a function - without which the function cannot be performed. (e.g. fuel costs - pilot wages)
As you add n number of identical & independent distributions (IIDs) together - as n --> inf - the resulting distribution will be normal - regardless of the shape of the IIDs


10. What is the goal of robust design?

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11. In what regions of the graph is UTE applicable?
Technology Impact Matrix - for n tech & m metrics of interest - nxm matrix - has 'k' factor with degradation/improvement from baseline
Gaussian Distribution
Regions 1 to 3.
Active UTE (additive) - Product UTE (multiplicative)


12. interval scale
Select final tech comb. For any multi attribute - constraint - or criteria problem - the selection of the 'best' family of alternatives is inherently subjective. Various selection techniques are used to provide decision maker with extensive info. Met
Does not have a natural zero - is a cardinal scale
Regions 1 to 3.
(1) End result not intuitive (2) Heavily reliant on weights - which are subjective


13. TIES Step 2: Design Space Conception
Determine the design space - baseline Method: Morphological Matrix
CDF= ?_(-8)^8
Chosen alternative should be closest to positive ideal soln - and farthest from neg ideal soln
Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution


14. Indirect Operating Cost
A technique used to determine the best alternative with all interactions between the constraints. Used for product design.
F(x)=1/(s(2p)^(.5) )exp?(-(x-
Cost related to function - but not explicitly necessary. (e.g. attendant wages - advertising)
M&S environment is needed to facilitate rapid assessments with minimal time and monetary expenditures of the alternative concepts identified in the Morphological Matrix Method: DoE


15. TIF

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16. Name two uncertainties accounted for by UTE. What metric does UTE use to quantify this risk?
Technology Compatability Matrix - For n techs - is nxn matrix - Tells whether the intersecting technologies are compatible - It only has 0s and 1s - 0 means the technologies are not compatible with each other - 1 means techs are compatible with each
Trying to determine the metric values for any combination of design variables/ what the metrics are as a function of design variables Method: RSE: Response Surface Eqn.
Technology Impacts Requirements uncertainty (creep/change) - Quantified by probability of success/satisfaction: P(success)
Technology Readiness Level Ranges 1-9 - where 1 means that the basic principle have been observed and reported and 9 means the technology has had successful missions A high tech means the technology is pretty developed and should be (or is) ready for


17. How is inflation measured?

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18. What is the equation for OEC if X is a benefit (maximize) and N is a cost (minimize)?
Determine the design space - baseline Method: Morphological Matrix
A sample is a subset of a population. We use samples because we very rarely have the resources to test/examine an entire population
OEC = W1X/Xbsl + W2Nbsl/N
Provide for rapid trade- off capability between the three elements and search for feasible solutions - Allow graphical visualization of the combined space - Address mission requirements ambiguity and technology uncertainty.


19. Strengths of TOPSis...
(1) Easy to compute order of large # of alternatives (2) Gives specific ranking order
Cumulative Distribution Function
To analytically answer 'What can be done to reduce the impact of sensitivities of objective to sources of uncertainty?'
It gives the probability that a value will be met or exceeded.


20. Why is learning curve used (or what is it?)
A technique that determines the best alternative based on a multi- attribute utlity function which is closest to hypothetical best solution. Used for product selection.
Efficiency improves as better techniques are learned. As more efficient techniques are found - the learning curve begins to level off as incremental improvements decrease.
Has a natural zero - is a cardinal scale
It can be continuous or discrete


21. Write down a formula for a normal distribution
M&S environment is needed to facilitate rapid assessments with minimal time and monetary expenditures of the alternative concepts identified in the Morphological Matrix Method: DoE
F(x)=1/(s(2p)^(.5) )exp?(-(x-
Mean and variance
X~N(0 -1)


22. What does CDF stand for?
Cumulative Distribution Function
Central limit theorem
Identified techs are now applied to the vehicle concepts and evaluated. Evaluation provided data/info to the decision - maker. Method: RSE: Response Surface Eqn.
Cost: investment required to produce and item - Price: amount required to purchase said item - Price = cost + profit/fee


23. 3 Measures of Central Tendency (& Defs)
Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the cost of an average 'basket of goods' a typical consumer would purchase.
Select final tech comb. For any multi attribute - constraint - or criteria problem - the selection of the 'best' family of alternatives is inherently subjective. Various selection techniques are used to provide decision maker with extensive info. Met
Active UTE (additive) - Product UTE (multiplicative)
Mean: the average - Median: The midpoint in the data - equal # of higher and lower values - Mode: Most common value


24. TIES Step 8: Selecting Technology

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25. What is the equation for the learning curve?
Gaussian Distribution
Mean: the average - Median: The midpoint in the data - equal # of higher and lower values - Mode: Most common value
Determine the design space - baseline Method: Morphological Matrix
y = kx^n - y: production effort k: effort for first unit x: # of units n: learning factor


26. Why are scaling parameters important?
RDTE - Investment/Acquisition - Operations and Support - Disposal
Select final tech comb. For any multi attribute - constraint - or criteria problem - the selection of the 'best' family of alternatives is inherently subjective. Various selection techniques are used to provide decision maker with extensive info. Met
Convenient properties - Various physical - astronomic - and real life examples have roughly 'normal' behaviors - good approximation for measurements due to central limit theorem
Scaling parameters photographically scale the size of the vehicle to take full advantage of technology -(e.g. increase CL -> Can decrease S -> Decreases D -> Decreases Fuel Consumed -> etc...) This assumes that the physics of the problem remains the


27. What is the definition of inflation?
MADM - since we are selecting from existing alternatives for technology infusion. Also - TOPSIS is a MADM technique.
(1) Identify potential technologies that may improve technical & economical feasibility (2) Establish physical compatibility rules for diff techs (3) Determine expected impact (improvements and degradations) to systems of interest Method: TRL - Techn
Inflation is the decrease in the buying power/value of money. It is caused by the when amount of available money changes wrt amount of product/services available
It gives the probability that a value will be met or exceeded.


28. What are the different types of UTEs?
The interest i such that 0=PE(i^)
Active UTE (additive) - Product UTE (multiplicative)
(1) Identify potential technologies that may improve technical & economical feasibility (2) Establish physical compatibility rules for diff techs (3) Determine expected impact (improvements and degradations) to systems of interest Method: TRL - Techn
Optimizing - finds the set of criteria that maximizes or minimizes a design criteria or several design criteria - Satisficing - finds the conditions where the constraints or requires are met but no optimization occurs.


29. What does CLT stand for?
Range: Gives the magnitude of the spread - min and max - Variance: Indicates how spread out the data is - Skewness: Indicates if the distribution is biased - Kurtosis: Peakness
To analytically answer 'What can be done to reduce the impact of sensitivities of objective to sources of uncertainty?'
Central limit theorem
(1) Mission Requirements - Input: Mission metrics and requirements Output: Delta response for requirements (2) Design Variables - Input: Geometric and economic design variables Output: Delta response for design variable - (3) Technologies Input: P


30. What can be done about uncertainty in requirement?
Mean =0 Variance =1
Look at multiple weight scenarios and find techs that are robust regardless of where the emphasis is put.
Cost required to perform a function - without which the function cannot be performed. (e.g. fuel costs - pilot wages)
Technology Impact Matrix - for n tech & m metrics of interest - nxm matrix - has 'k' factor with degradation/improvement from baseline


31. What are the four difference life cycle costs?
Does not have a natural zero - is a cardinal scale
RDTE - Investment/Acquisition - Operations and Support - Disposal
No way to tell without more information. It depends on the relation between s12+s22 and s32
Cost required to perform a function - without which the function cannot be performed. (e.g. fuel costs - pilot wages)


32. Name the advantages of UTE.
Technology Impacts Requirements uncertainty (creep/change) - Quantified by probability of success/satisfaction: P(success)
Provide for rapid trade- off capability between the three elements and search for feasible solutions - Allow graphical visualization of the combined space - Address mission requirements ambiguity and technology uncertainty.
It gives the probability that a value will be met or exceeded.
To analytically answer 'What can be done to reduce the impact of sensitivities of objective to sources of uncertainty?'


33. What two variables are necessary to define a normal distribution?
(1) End result not intuitive (2) Heavily reliant on weights - which are subjective
Convenient properties - Various physical - astronomic - and real life examples have roughly 'normal' behaviors - good approximation for measurements due to central limit theorem
M&S environment is needed to facilitate rapid assessments with minimal time and monetary expenditures of the alternative concepts identified in the Morphological Matrix Method: DoE
Mean and variance


34. What is TIM? What is the size and what value can it take?

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35. Is CDF discrete or continuous - if it is discrete give the continuous equivalent - if it continuous give the discrete equivalent.
It can be continuous or discrete
(1) Easy to compute order of large # of alternatives (2) Gives specific ranking order
Does not have a natural zero - is a cardinal scale
The first step is defining the problem - mapping customer requirements to engineering metrics. Method: QFD


36. Does TIES use MADM or MODM? Why?
MADM - since we are selecting from existing alternatives for technology infusion. Also - TOPSIS is a MADM technique.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the cost of an average 'basket of goods' a typical consumer would purchase.
PE(i)=?Ft
#=2^n = 2^15


37. Direct Operating Costs
Does not have a natural zero - is a cardinal scale
Cost required to perform a function - without which the function cannot be performed. (e.g. fuel costs - pilot wages)
No way to tell without more information. It depends on the relation between s12+s22 and s32
Efficiency improves as better techniques are learned. As more efficient techniques are found - the learning curve begins to level off as incremental improvements decrease.


38. Ratio scale
PE(i)=?Ft
Efficiency improves as better techniques are learned. As more efficient techniques are found - the learning curve begins to level off as incremental improvements decrease.
Technology Impact Matrix - for n tech & m metrics of interest - nxm matrix - has 'k' factor with degradation/improvement from baseline
Has a natural zero - is a cardinal scale


39. MODM
A probability density contour plot is a visualization method for Joint probability density function (a 2D representation). Their shapes (contour shapes) tell if the metric analyzed in each axis are correlated or not (Circular -> no correlation) (elli
Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution
#=2^n = 2^15
A technique used to determine the best alternative with all interactions between the constraints. Used for product design.


40. What can management do to mitigate the risk associated with infusing new technologies?
Mean: the average - Median: The midpoint in the data - equal # of higher and lower values - Mode: Most common value
Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the cost of an average 'basket of goods' a typical consumer would purchase.
Carry a diverse portfolio of technologies during conceptual design - Limit the number of technologies in the final design - Utilize only mature technologies (high TRL)
As you add n number of identical & independent distributions (IIDs) together - as n --> inf - the resulting distribution will be normal - regardless of the shape of the IIDs


41. What is the equation for present equivalent value? Define variables.
Convenient properties - Various physical - astronomic - and real life examples have roughly 'normal' behaviors - good approximation for measurements due to central limit theorem
Select final tech comb. For any multi attribute - constraint - or criteria problem - the selection of the 'best' family of alternatives is inherently subjective. Various selection techniques are used to provide decision maker with extensive info. Met
(1) Sophisticated Analysis Code + Monte Carlo (2) Metamodel/Response Surface + Monte Carlo (3) Sophisticated Analysis Code + Fast Probability Integration
PE(i)=?Ft


42. TIES Step 1: Problem Definition
Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the cost of an average 'basket of goods' a typical consumer would purchase.
Cumulative Distribution Function
The interest i such that 0=PE(i^)
The first step is defining the problem - mapping customer requirements to engineering metrics. Method: QFD


43. If you have two compatible mature technologies to infuse - or one not mature technology - which will have the most variance?
Technology Readiness Level Ranges 1-9 - where 1 means that the basic principle have been observed and reported and 9 means the technology has had successful missions A high tech means the technology is pretty developed and should be (or is) ready for
It can be continuous or discrete
Range: Gives the magnitude of the spread - min and max - Variance: Indicates how spread out the data is - Skewness: Indicates if the distribution is biased - Kurtosis: Peakness
No way to tell without more information. It depends on the relation between s12+s22 and s32


44. 8 Steps in TIES
(1) Problem def - (2) Design space conception (3) Model and Simulation (4) Investigate Design Space (5) Feasible? (6) Identify Technologies (7) Evaluate Technologies (8) Select Technology
Provide for rapid trade- off capability between the three elements and search for feasible solutions - Allow graphical visualization of the combined space - Address mission requirements ambiguity and technology uncertainty.
(1) End result not intuitive (2) Heavily reliant on weights - which are subjective
Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the cost of an average 'basket of goods' a typical consumer would purchase.


45. Why use uniform dist for input variables (Gap Analysis)
Allows designer to assess feasibility of design
X+Y and X-Y are normally distributed. - (X
A technique used to determine the best alternative with all interactions between the constraints. Used for product design.
Gaussian Distribution


46. Assumptions Used in TOPSis...
Identified techs are now applied to the vehicle concepts and evaluated. Evaluation provided data/info to the decision - maker. Method: RSE: Response Surface Eqn.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the cost of an average 'basket of goods' a typical consumer would purchase.
Required yield per revenue passenger TOC/(#OfSeats)(loadFactor)(distanceInMiles) loadFactor = % of seats filled w/ paying customers
Chosen alternative should be closest to positive ideal soln - and farthest from neg ideal soln


47. What are properties of a CDF?
Cost: investment required to produce and item - Price: amount required to purchase said item - Price = cost + profit/fee
Select final tech comb. For any multi attribute - constraint - or criteria problem - the selection of the 'best' family of alternatives is inherently subjective. Various selection techniques are used to provide decision maker with extensive info. Met
Identified techs are now applied to the vehicle concepts and evaluated. Evaluation provided data/info to the decision - maker. Method: RSE: Response Surface Eqn.
Range is always between zero and 1 monotonically increasing


48. What does TOPSIS stand for?
Provide for rapid trade- off capability between the three elements and search for feasible solutions - Allow graphical visualization of the combined space - Address mission requirements ambiguity and technology uncertainty.
Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution
Technology space limits
Is top- down - you aren't looking at specific technologies - you're just looking at what you need in the future


49. What is another name for a normal distribution?
#=2^n = 2^15
Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the cost of an average 'basket of goods' a typical consumer would purchase.
As you add n number of identical & independent distributions (IIDs) together - as n --> inf - the resulting distribution will be normal - regardless of the shape of the IIDs
Gaussian Distribution


50. What is the notation for a standard normal distribution?
X~N(0 -1)
Range is always between zero and 1 monotonically increasing
RDTE - Investment/Acquisition - Operations and Support - Disposal
X+Y and X-Y are normally distributed. - (X